Canadian visits to New York dropped 26% in 2025 and tourist spending from Canada remains 14% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the Hotel Association of New York. The decline comes as NYC Tourism + Conventions has revised its 2026 visitor forecast downward to 66.3 million, a 2% increase from last year but still short of the city’s 2019 record of 66.6 million.
Key Takeaways
- Canadian visits to New York fell 26% in 2025, and spending by Canadian tourists sits 14% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the Hotel Association of New York.
- NYC Tourism + Conventions projects 66.3 million visitors in 2026, up 2% from last year’s 65 million but still roughly 300,000 short of the 2019 record.
- New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli reported that Canadian border crossings into New York fell more than 21% in 2025, a loss of nearly 3.6 million visitors.
- International travelers spent nearly $17 billion in New York in 2024, but tourism-related GDP was flat through 2025 and hotel occupancy fell 1.2% statewide.
- Tourism employment declined 2.6% in the North Country and 2% in Western New York, while New York City added jobs at a 1% rate.
Canada’s Retreat from New York Has Measurable Economic Consequences
Canada has historically ranked among New York’s most reliable sources of international visitors. Canadian tourists contributed an estimated $600 million to New York City’s economy in 2024, making them the second-highest-spending international market behind the United Kingdom. The reversal that began in 2025 has continued into 2026, and the financial effects are now visible across hotels, tour operators, restaurants, and cross-border transportation companies.
The Hotel Association of New York has tracked the shift in real time. Canadian hotel bookings in New York City dropped by as much as 30% for summer and fall periods in 2025, and tour operators catering to Canadian visitors reported business declines of up to 40%. One Toronto-based bus company that shuttles Canadian travelers to New York City reported losing 50% of its bookings, a collapse that began in early 2025 and has not recovered.
The causes are layered. The U.S.-Canada trade dispute, which escalated through 2025 and into 2026, has soured cross-border sentiment on both sides. A stronger U.S. dollar has made New York travel more expensive for Canadians, and surveys conducted in late 2025 found that 70% of Canadians said they would feel uncomfortable traveling to the United States. Many are redirecting their travel budgets domestically or to other international markets.
State-Level Data Confirms the Scale of the Downturn
A report released in April 2026 by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli provided the broadest view of the damage. DiNapoli found that international travel to New York fell 3% in 2025, a loss of more than 176,000 visitors, making the state’s decline second only to California’s among all U.S. states. The sharpest impact came from Canada, where border crossings into New York dropped more than 21%, translating to a loss of nearly 3.6 million visitors.
The Comptroller’s analysis also documented wider economic effects. Tourism-related GDP in New York was flat through 2025. Hotel occupancy fell 1.2% statewide. Employment in the North Country, the region closest to the Canadian border, declined 2.6%, while Western New York saw a 2% drop. New York City’s hospitality sector fared marginally better, adding jobs at a 1% rate, but that growth was driven by domestic travel rather than international arrivals.
DiNapoli also noted that attendance at New York’s national park sites fell 18.2% in 2025, and state park attendance dropped by more than 2.3 million visits, led by declines at Jones Beach, Bear Mountain, and Niagara Reservation. Exports to Canada, the state’s largest trading partner, declined by $3.8 billion due to tariffs.
New York City’s Tourism Forecast Reflects a Slower Recovery Than Expected
NYC Tourism + Conventions, the city’s official destination marketing organization, recorded 65 million visitors in 2025, a 0.7% increase over 2024 but well below the agency’s earlier target of 67 million. International arrivals fell 3.2% to 12.5 million, while domestic travel provided a partial offset, rising 1.7% to 52.4 million.
For 2026, the agency projects 66.3 million total visitors, with domestic travel expected to reach 53.4 million and international arrivals rebounding to 12.9 million. The forecast leans partly on the FIFA World Cup, which is expected to bring 1.2 million visitors to the New York-New Jersey region and generate $3.3 billion in economic impact during the summer tournament window.
But those projections were built before the latest data on Canadian travel emerged. A further erosion in Canadian visits could push 2026 totals below the forecast, leaving New York City short of the 2019 record for the seventh consecutive year. Tourism Economics, the firm that produces the national visitor forecast for Brand USA, revised its 2026 projection for international arrivals to the United States downward to 69.9 million from 70.6 million in July, citing Canada as one of the steepest downgraded markets.
Domestic Travel Anchors the Recovery, But Cannot Replace International Spending
The one consistent bright spot in New York City’s tourism data is domestic travel. The 2025 figure of 52.4 million domestic visitors came within reach of the 2019 record, and the 2026 projection of 53.4 million would surpass it. Regional drive markets, particularly from the Northeast corridor, continue to perform well.
The problem is that domestic and international travelers do not spend at the same rate. International visitors account for roughly 50% of all tourist spending in New York City despite representing a smaller share of total arrivals. They tend to stay longer, book higher-category hotels, and spend more per trip. A decline in international visitors, and particularly in Canadian visitors who have long been among the city’s most accessible and frequent foreign guests, creates a spending gap that domestic volume alone cannot close.
Tourism generated $84.7 billion in total economic impact for New York City in 2025, including $55.6 billion in direct spending. The sector supported 397,000 jobs and delivered $7.5 billion in tax revenue. Protecting that economic engine requires international markets to stabilize, and Canada sits at the center of that equation.
FAQs
How Much Did Canadian Tourism to New York Decline in 2025?
Canadian visits to New York fell 26% in 2025, and spending by Canadian tourists is 14% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the Hotel Association of New York. State-level data from the New York State Comptroller’s Office showed that border crossings from Canada into New York dropped more than 21%, a loss of nearly 3.6 million visitors.
How Many Visitors Is New York City Expected to Receive in 2026?
NYC Tourism + Conventions projects 66.3 million total visitors in 2026, a 2% increase over the 65 million recorded in 2025. That projection would still fall short of the city’s 2019 record of 66.6 million visitors. The forecast includes 53.4 million domestic visitors and 12.9 million international arrivals.
What Is Driving the Decline in Canadian Travel to the United States?
The decline is tied to the U.S.-Canada trade dispute, a stronger U.S. dollar that reduces Canadian purchasing power, and negative sentiment toward travel to the United States. Surveys from late 2025 found that 70% of Canadians said they would feel uncomfortable visiting the U.S., and many have redirected travel spending to domestic destinations or other international markets.
